You'll work harder with a gun in your back, for a bowl of rice a day. "Holiday In Cambodia" - The Dead Kennedys
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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58–19 on winners spread MAE 10.3 77 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Central Connecticut @ Manhattan +3.2 140.9 60% 78–67 ✗
Delaware @ Princeton +14.5 142.0 88% 76–69 ✗
Dartmouth @ South Florida +10.5 134.9 82% 55–59 ✓
Florida Gulf Coast @ St. Bonaventure +2.2 135.0 57% 71–58 ✗
Austin Peay @ Murray State +8.6 136.4 78% 60–68 ✓
Southern @ Youngstown State +9.2 151.0 81% 81–85 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ Tulsa +11.5 134.1 87% 51–66 ✓
Chicago State @ Southern Illinois +11.2 139.0 86% 52–63 ✓
Missouri State @ Oral Roberts +13.9 141.0 86% 77–80 ✓
Green Bay @ Stanford +17.4 133.5 90% 40–85 ✓
Creighton @ Marquette +8.2 152.7 80% 58–69 ✓
Weber State @ Cal Poly +10.8 131.8 83% 74–45 ✗
Indiana @ Kansas +6.4 144.3 76% 62–84 ✓
Saint Francis @ Miami +19.8 152.1 91% 76–91 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ IU Indianapolis +1.8 134.7 55% 70–59 ✗
Missouri @ UCF +2.7 148.5 56% 68–66 ✗
Wake Forest @ Rutgers +11.8 135.1 85% 57–81 ✓
Liberty @ Bryant -2.8 150.4 38% 82–62 ✓
Providence @ Seton Hall +2.5 140.1 63% 71–67 ✗
Montana @ Prairie View A&M -2.1 133.6 41% 81–76 ✓
Gonzaga @ Alabama +2.2 157.6 61% 100–90 ✗
Longwood @ The Citadel -2.8 137.5 39% 75–70 ✓
Towson @ Northern Iowa -6.8 134.8 25% 66–83 ✗
North Florida @ Pittsburgh +15.0 147.1 89% 56–82 ✓
Houston @ Virginia -1.6 124.9 43% 69–61 ✓
Little Rock @ Jacksonville State +7.8 151.9 76% 62–72 ✓
Stetson @ Ohio +3.1 145.0 64% 66–85 ✓
Radford @ Eastern Kentucky -1.1 143.9 47% 65–67 ✗
North Carolina Central @ Gardner-Webb +3.9 131.4 64% 70–72 ✓
Delaware State @ Drexel +12.3 134.5 86% 52–85 ✓
Florida International @ Florida Atlantic +18.9 148.1 91% 53–79 ✓
Morehead State @ Mercer +7.4 135.8 76% 52–79 ✓
Troy @ SE Louisiana -3.4 146.8 34% 77–71 ✓
Florida A&M @ Louisville +5.9 133.0 70% 55–61 ✓
UT Martin @ Bowling Green +5.2 151.6 68% 75–67 ✗
La Salle @ Cincinnati +13.5 144.6 87% 60–78 ✓
Indiana State @ Duquesne +2.0 150.3 59% 86–92 ✓
Charlotte @ Monmouth -10.3 134.5 16% 80–46 ✓
DePaul @ Northwestern +9.0 134.6 80% 45–83 ✓
East Carolina @ South Carolina -3.7 135.4 36% 64–56 ✓
Alabama State @ Georgia Tech +15.2 138.9 88% 60–96 ✓
St. John's @ Florida State -9.0 147.8 21% 93–79 ✓
Nicholls @ Mississippi State +19.9 132.1 91% 66–68 ✓
Ohio State @ North Carolina -2.0 155.6 44% 84–89 ✗
Sam Houston @ Texas State -6.8 131.6 21% 69–62 ✓
Samford @ South Carolina State -6.6 156.0 26% 61–62 ✗
Campbell @ Georgia Southern +0.8 138.1 52% 53–54 ✓
Lamar @ UL Monroe +3.6 139.3 61% 59–83 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah +10.1 151.5 83% 101–106 ✓
Northwestern State @ Rice +1.2 156.2 53% 73–110 ✓
North Texas @ Massachusetts -0.8 129.6 46% 62–44 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Oklahoma +17.7 148.6 90% 66–87 ✓
Cornell @ Syracuse +4.2 151.0 66% 63–78 ✓
Toledo @ Marshall +10.8 156.9 83% 85–100 ✓
Tulane @ George Mason -1.9 145.5 43% 56–62 ✗
Illinois State @ Ball State +5.1 141.7 70% 69–83 ✓
Jackson State @ Texas Tech +11.1 140.1 85% 52–102 ✓
Bradley @ Arkansas +11.5 137.1 84% 57–76 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Illinois +23.3 151.8 91% 47–68 ✓
Grambling @ Virginia Tech +11.8 136.8 83% 48–74 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Jacksonville +10.1 137.0 83% 63–72 ✓
Western Carolina @ Tennessee Tech +3.8 147.6 64% 75–65 ✗
UC Davis @ Eastern Washington +0.4 148.3 49% 68–79 ✓
Northern Illinois @ VCU +10.0 140.6 81% 63–90 ✓
UNC Asheville @ East Tennessee State +0.5 144.4 49% 74–73 ✗
Hampton @ Norfolk State +6.9 145.2 78% 66–78 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bellarmine +10.0 142.3 83% 71–67 ✗
Villanova @ Saint Joseph's -4.1 147.0 35% 71–64 ✓
Lipscomb @ Michigan +12.4 147.1 85% 75–83 ✓
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Hartford -4.9 128.4 28% 67–51 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Furman +1.2 152.5 54% 70–72 ✓
San Francisco @ UNLV +10.9 142.7 83% 75–73 ✗
Temple @ Ole Miss +11.0 137.8 83% 55–63 ✓
UCLA @ Kentucky -3.3 142.6 36% 63–53 ✓
Utah @ BYU -6.2 146.0 24% 66–75 ✗
Davidson @ Purdue +14.4 146.0 87% 61–69 ✓
Texas Southern @ North Carolina A&T +0.4 140.9 50% 66–67 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.