Betting Lines
| Spread | BGSU -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Under |
| Money | BGSU -163 UTM +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BGSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTM +8 | 142 | Lost |
| Massey | BGSU -6.5 (-14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.6 (-13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 75% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BGSU -5.8 (-13.8) | 152.5 (-10.5) | 72% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BGSU -4.5 (-12.5) | 151.8 (-9.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BGSU -5.2 (-13.2) | 151.6 (-9.6) | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BGSU -4.8 (-12.8) | 152.1 (-10.1) | 73% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BGSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-2 |
| Away | 4-11 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.1 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#251) | -5.7 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.75 (#251) | -0.87 (#260) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.26 (#262) | -1.67 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.440 (#272) | 0.422 (#295) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BGSU | UTM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.4% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.8% | 35.6% |
| REB / G | 37.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 16.6% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 63.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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