Betting Lines
| Spread | UCLA -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | UK +105 UCLA -133 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCLA +10 | 116 | Lost |
| Massey | UCLA -5.9 (-4.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.8 (-27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCLA -3.9 (-6.1) | 142.8 (-26.8) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCLA -3.9 (-6.1) | 139.4 (-23.4) | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCLA -3.3 (-6.7) | 142.6 (-26.6) | 36% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCLA -3.3 (-6.7) | 141.6 (-25.6) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 31-6 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 18-2 |
| Home | 14-4 | 17-0 |
| Away | 6-4 | 9-2 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 60.7 |
| Massey | 13.4 (#19) | 19.3 (#4) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#55) | 2.29 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.33 (#55) | 3.44 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.580 (#61) | 0.616 (#31) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 50.4% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 41.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.54 | 1.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 31.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.1% | 16.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.8% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.4% | 25.1% |
| DRB% | 74.0% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 16.9% |
Game Analysis
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