Betting Lines
| Spread | LOU -17.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | LOU -1600 FAMU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LOU +6 | 116 | Won |
| Massey | LOU -9.1 (-3.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.4 (-14.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 59% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LOU -7.3 (-1.3) | 130.4 (-14.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LOU -9.0 (-3.0) | 130.2 (-14.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LOU -5.9 (+0.1) | 133.0 (-17.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LOU -6.2 (-0.2) | 135.0 (-19.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 7-22 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 5-13 |
| Home | 4-13 | 4-7 |
| Away | 0-11 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L5 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 58.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 71.0 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#348) | -16.5 (#359) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.61 (#339) | -2.00 (#319) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.20 (#306) | -2.85 (#326) |
| RPI | 0.421 (#296) | 0.419 (#299) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | FAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 36.5% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 29.3% |
| REB / G | 31.9 | 28.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.54 | 0.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 40.9% |
| TOV% | 23.8% | 27.5% |
| ORB% | 23.4% | 23.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.1% | 58.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 63.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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