Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 115.5 Over |
| Money | UVA +130 HOU -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +8 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | HOU -4.2 (-3.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 108.2 (+21.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -4.0 (-4.0) | 123.9 (+6.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOU -1.7 (-6.3) | 121.2 (+8.8) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -1.6 (-6.4) | 124.9 (+5.1) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -1.6 (-6.4) | 124.7 (+5.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 17, 2021 | HOU 67 – 47 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 33-4 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 17-1 |
| Home | 15-1 | 16-2 |
| Away | 6-5 | 11-0 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.8 | 74.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.5 | 57.5 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#27) | 22.3 (#2) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.29 (#3) | 3.16 (#11) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.89 (#4) | 4.43 (#9) |
| RPI | 0.640 (#13) | 0.633 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 39.6% | 32.9% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 14.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.56 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 15.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 39.2% |
| FT Rate | 37.6% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 37.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 25.2% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 21.3% |
Game Analysis
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