Betting Lines
| Spread | HOU -6.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 118.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOU +20 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | HOU -23.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.0 (-21.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOU -21.0 (-1.0) | 138.8 (-24.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOU -17.6 (+2.4) | 135.0 (-21.0) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOU -15.9 (+4.1) | 140.4 (-26.4) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2022 | HOU 69 – 61 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-6 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-8 |
| Home | 16-1 | 11-7 |
| Away | 7-3 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 9-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-0 | 1-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.8 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 7.3 (#49) | -6.0 (#286) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.43 (#41) | -2.34 (#342) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.35 (#35) | -3.77 (#344) |
| RPI | 0.938 (#9) | 0.242 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.0% | 37.1% |
| REB / G | 44.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 16.5 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 13.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 36.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.7% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 25.6% |
| DRB% | 65.5% | 67.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.1% | 12.3% |
Game Analysis
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