Why don't you get back into bed. "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
Hawkins Arena · December 17, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread MER -6.5 Home covered
O/U 133.5 Under
Money MER -250 / MORE +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total MER win
Actual MER +27 131 Won
Massey MER -10.8 (+16.2) — —
Massey Totals — 137.7 (-6.7) —
Bradley-Terry — — 55% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 66% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ MER -5.3 (+21.7) 134.5 (-3.5) 70% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML MER -7.4 (+19.6) 135.8 (-4.8) 76% ✓
Baseline ML MER -7.1 (+19.9) 135.0 (-4.0) 79% ✓
Baseline Plus ML MER -7.6 (+19.4) 135.7 (-4.7) 78% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Nov 15, 2023 MORE 74 – 66 MER

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings MER MORE
Overall 14-19 22-12
Conference 6-12 14-4
Home 7-7 14-2
Away 4-10 8-9
Neutral 3-2 0-1
Last 5 2-3 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 66.1 66.2
Avg Pts Against 67.3 68.2
Massey -2.3 (#220) -8.0 (#309)
Bradley-Terry -1.13 (#279) -0.37 (#218)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.18 (#257) -0.69 (#229)
RPI 0.420 (#298) 0.483 (#204)
Shooting & Four Factors MER MORE
FG% 45.5% 38.1%
3PT% 35.7% 28.3%
REB / G 34.8 34.2
OREB / G 9.1 8.9
AST / TO 1.14 0.66
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 44.1%
TOV% 18.9% 21.9%
ORB% 28.3% 25.6%
FT Rate 24.0% 26.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 47.6% 50.6%
Opp TOV% 16.1% 14.4%
DRB% 70.2% 73.0%
Opp FT Rate 25.8% 21.6%

Game Analysis

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