Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 165.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -150 TOL +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +15 | 185 | Won |
| Massey | MRSH -11.6 (+3.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.9 (+20.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -10.8 (+4.2) | 156.9 (+28.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -8.6 (+6.4) | 160.2 (+24.8) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -11.3 (+3.7) | 158.4 (+26.6) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -10.4 (+4.6) | 156.7 (+28.3) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | MRSH 85 – 73 TOL |
| Nov 9, 2024 | TOL 90 – 80 MRSH |
| Dec 14, 2023 | TOL 88 – 87 MRSH |
| Dec 22, 2021 | TOL 95 – 63 MRSH |
| Dec 16, 2020 | TOL 96 – 87 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-8 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 16-2 |
| Home | 15-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.2 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.2 | 76.6 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#62) | 1.8 (#138) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.49 (#69) | 0.10 (#171) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#73) | -0.03 (#186) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#86) | 0.505 (#166) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.4% | 47.6% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 42.5 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 14.9 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.60 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 37.4% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 10.8% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.9% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 20.3% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 68.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.2% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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