Betting Lines
| Spread | MRSH -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | MRSH -340 TOL +280 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MRSH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +9 | 183 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -14.2 (-23.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.1 (+39.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -13.8 (-22.8) | 144.1 (+38.9) | 86% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MRSH -8.3 (-17.3) | 139.8 (+43.2) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MRSH -11.0 (-20.0) | 144.3 (+38.7) | 76% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -12.9 (-21.9) | 147.0 (+36.0) | 76% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | MRSH 85 – 73 TOL |
| Nov 9, 2024 | TOL 90 – 80 MRSH |
| Dec 14, 2023 | TOL 88 – 87 MRSH |
| Dec 17, 2022 | MRSH 100 – 85 TOL |
| Dec 22, 2021 | TOL 95 – 63 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MRSH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 3-2 |
| Massey | 11.7 (#26) | 3.3 (#93) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.74 (#5) | -0.30 (#184) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.78 (#2) | -1.27 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.643 (#34) | 0.481 (#168) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MRSH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.9% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 40.2% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 49.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.2% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.8% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 75.9% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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