Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | TOL -135 MRSH +115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MRSH +12 | 158 | Lost |
| Massey | MRSH -0.0 (-12.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MRSH -4.5 (-7.5) | 145.5 (+12.5) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MRSH -4.4 (-7.6) | 144.7 (+13.3) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 9, 2024 | TOL 90 – 80 MRSH |
| Dec 14, 2023 | TOL 88 – 87 MRSH |
| Dec 17, 2022 | MRSH 100 – 85 TOL |
| Dec 22, 2021 | TOL 95 – 63 MRSH |
| Dec 16, 2020 | TOL 96 – 87 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-1 | 1-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.8 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 78.9 |
| Massey | -10.0 (#278) | 8.0 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.99 (#277) | 2.01 (#9) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.56 (#277) | 2.81 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.500 (#10) | — |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 45.5% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 26.0 | 40.0 |
| OREB / G | 6.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.91 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.9% | 57.1% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 32.1% |
| ORB% | 19.4% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 12.7% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 61.2% | 46.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 24.4% |
| DRB% | 64.5% | 75.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 8.6% | 38.2% |
Game Analysis
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