Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +32 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -7.0 (+25.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -6.2 (+25.8) | 155.2 (+2.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -7.6 (+24.4) | 154.7 (+3.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -7.3 (+24.7) | 156.6 (+1.4) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -7.4 (+24.6) | 154.8 (+3.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | MRSH 85 – 73 TOL |
| Nov 9, 2024 | TOL 90 – 80 MRSH |
| Dec 14, 2023 | TOL 88 – 87 MRSH |
| Dec 17, 2022 | MRSH 100 – 85 TOL |
| Dec 16, 2020 | TOL 96 – 87 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 4-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Massey | 3.2 (#112) | 0.7 (#157) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.67 (#59) | -0.42 (#222) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#68) | -0.32 (#203) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#38) | 0.470 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 28.4% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.09 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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