Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -8.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 165.0 Over |
| Money | TOL -365 MRSH +285 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +1 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | TOL -14.5 (-13.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.6 (+16.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -12.5 (-11.5) | 151.5 (+23.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -10.3 (-9.3) | 156.9 (+18.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -13.4 (-12.4) | 154.7 (+20.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -12.8 (-11.8) | 151.8 (+23.2) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 8, 2025 | MRSH 85 – 73 TOL |
| Nov 9, 2024 | TOL 90 – 80 MRSH |
| Dec 17, 2022 | MRSH 100 – 85 TOL |
| Dec 22, 2021 | TOL 95 – 63 MRSH |
| Dec 16, 2020 | TOL 96 – 87 MRSH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 7-11 |
| Home | 12-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 8-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 72.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 76.9 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#87) | -4.2 (#250) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.97 (#104) | -0.75 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.66 (#139) | -0.74 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.532 (#127) | 0.489 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | MRSH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 27.1% |
| REB / G | 30.4 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.7% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 69.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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