Betting Lines
| Spread | TOW -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UNI +210 TOW -200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNI +17 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | TOW -7.9 (+24.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+17.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOW -6.1 (+23.1) | 132.4 (+16.6) | 31% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOW -6.4 (+23.4) | 130.6 (+18.4) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOW -6.8 (+23.8) | 134.8 (+14.2) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOW -6.1 (+23.1) | 134.9 (+14.1) | 32% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNI | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-7 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.0 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.6 | 66.7 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#265) | 2.6 (#122) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.92 (#349) | 1.06 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.49 (#339) | 1.70 (#84) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#347) | 0.532 (#122) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNI | TOW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 33.9 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.6% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 35.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.8% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.1% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.1% | 17.9% |
Game Analysis
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