Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | FUR -225 SFA +220 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FUR +2 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -1.3 (+0.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.6 (-14.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -1.8 (+0.2) | 150.1 (-8.1) | 58% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -1.8 (+0.2) | 146.3 (-4.3) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -1.2 (+0.8) | 152.5 (-10.5) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -1.6 (+0.4) | 152.2 (-10.2) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FUR | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-8 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-4 |
| Away | 8-3 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.2 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#153) | -0.1 (#184) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#162) | 0.37 (#147) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#163) | 0.18 (#165) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#150) | 0.489 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FUR | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 39.9% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 24.7% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.5% | 55.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 26.6% |
| DRB% | 78.4% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 33.2% |
Game Analysis
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