Betting Lines
| Spread | VCU -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | VCU -1600 NIU +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VCU +27 | 153 | Won |
| Massey | VCU -12.5 (+14.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VCU -10.9 (+16.1) | 140.1 (+12.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VCU -13.3 (+13.7) | 140.5 (+12.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VCU -10.0 (+17.0) | 140.6 (+12.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VCU -10.5 (+16.5) | 140.6 (+12.4) | 79% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VCU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 9-9 |
| Home | 15-3 | 5-7 |
| Away | 8-3 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.9 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.9 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 0.2 (#176) | -7.2 (#297) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#123) | -2.20 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#128) | -3.30 (#334) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#148) | 0.408 (#312) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VCU | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.8% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 29.7% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 0.61 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 23.6% | 23.6% |
| ORB% | 27.3% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 38.3% | 20.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 66.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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