Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | CIN -800 LAS +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CIN +18 | 138 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -14.3 (+3.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.7 (-5.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 81% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -12.6 (+5.4) | 148.5 (-10.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -13.8 (+4.2) | 144.4 (-6.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -13.5 (+4.5) | 144.6 (-6.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -12.8 (+5.2) | 144.9 (-6.9) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIN | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 15-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 16-3 | 8-7 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.7 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 4.6 (#94) | -4.5 (#253) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#178) | -0.47 (#225) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.02 (#182) | -0.67 (#225) |
| RPI | 0.498 (#182) | 0.489 (#198) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIN | LAS |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.9% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.1% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 18.6% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.9% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.8% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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