Betting Lines
| Spread | SJU -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | FSU +240 SJU -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SJU +14 | 172 | Lost |
| Massey | SJU -9.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.4 (+20.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SJU -8.6 (-5.4) | 150.7 (+21.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SJU -8.7 (-5.3) | 150.5 (+21.5) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SJU -9.0 (-5.0) | 147.8 (+24.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SJU -8.2 (-5.8) | 148.2 (+23.8) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FSU | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 9-23 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 7-13 | 7-13 |
| Home | 5-11 | 11-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 75.2 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#228) | 6.5 (#72) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#305) | 2.27 (#32) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.70 (#287) | 2.95 (#31) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#286) | 0.566 (#75) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FSU | SJU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 46.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.6 | 43.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 36.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.7% | 19.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 46.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.9% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 64.8% | 74.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 15.8% |
Game Analysis
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