Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -120 OSU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +5 | 173 | Won |
| Massey | OSU -1.6 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.0 (+15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -1.8 (+6.8) | 154.1 (+18.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -1.3 (+6.3) | 151.8 (+21.2) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | OSU -2.0 (+7.0) | 155.6 (+17.4) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -1.9 (+6.9) | 155.7 (+17.3) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 20, 2025 | UNC 71 – 70 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 5-15 |
| Home | 12-3 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 69.0 |
| Massey | 11.6 (#34) | 13.2 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#40) | 1.53 (#67) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.89 (#35) | 2.03 (#70) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#18) | 0.561 (#81) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | OSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 37.0% |
| REB / G | 39.7 | 40.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 13.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 1.08 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.1% | 54.3% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 17.5% |
| ORB% | 30.0% | 38.9% |
| FT Rate | 33.1% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 45.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.9% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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