Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | OSU +130 UNC -155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | OSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +1 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -3.7 (+2.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.9 (-12.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 5% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | OSU -0.9 (-1.9) | 148.9 (-7.9) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -0.2 (-0.8) | 145.2 (-4.2) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | OSU -1.7 (-2.7) | 146.0 (-5.0) | 51% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | OSU -1.3 (-2.3) | 147.0 (-6.0) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2022 | UNC 89 – 84 OSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | OSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-3 | 18-0 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#38) | 16.0 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.63 (#65) | 3.60 (#12) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#67) | 5.20 (#13) |
| RPI | 0.588 (#53) | 0.653 (#12) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | OSU | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 32.7% |
| REB / G | 37.3 | 42.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 1.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.5% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 15.6% | 14.8% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 34.9% |
| FT Rate | 32.4% | 29.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 42.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 13.5% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.6% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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