Betting Lines
| Spread | LIB -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Under |
| Money | BRY +230 LIB -225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BRY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LIB +20 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | LIB -1.7 (-18.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.1 (-12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LIB -2.8 (-17.2) | 148.5 (-4.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LIB -1.7 (-18.3) | 145.4 (-1.4) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LIB -2.8 (-17.2) | 150.4 (-6.4) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LIB -2.4 (-17.6) | 149.5 (-5.5) | 36% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BRY | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-13 | 27-9 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 15-3 |
| Home | 9-4 | 19-1 |
| Away | 7-8 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.3 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.4 | 62.3 |
| Massey | 1.3 (#150) | 3.0 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#119) | 0.77 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.10 (#173) | 1.31 (#105) |
| RPI | 0.528 (#131) | 0.516 (#149) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BRY | LIB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 38.5% |
| REB / G | 39.8 | 31.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.13 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 25.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.9% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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