Betting Lines
| Spread | UCF -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | UCF -115 MIZ -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +2 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | UCF -2.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.2 (-18.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCF -1.5 (-3.5) | 150.3 (-16.3) | 55% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCF -2.7 (-4.7) | 147.7 (-13.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCF -2.7 (-4.7) | 148.5 (-14.5) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UCF -0.9 (-2.9) | 149.7 (-15.7) | 57% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCF | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 16-3 |
| Away | 5-7 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.5 | 78.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.5 | 74.4 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#56) | 6.7 (#70) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.72 (#59) | 2.19 (#34) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.92 (#33) | 2.48 (#52) |
| RPI | 0.586 (#52) | 0.553 (#91) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCF | MIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 50.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.9% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 57.9% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 36.2% | 31.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 18.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 26.8% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 65.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 24.7% |
Game Analysis
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