Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | USF -700 DART +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +4 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | USF -12.0 (-8.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.0 (-18.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -10.0 (-6.0) | 133.3 (-19.3) | 79% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -8.4 (-4.4) | 133.6 (-19.6) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -10.5 (-6.5) | 134.9 (-20.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -10.4 (-6.4) | 133.4 (-19.4) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USF | DART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 10-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-8 |
| Home | 9-9 | 7-5 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 68.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -1.5 (#204) | -8.4 (#312) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.54 (#299) | -1.71 (#306) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.51 (#276) | -2.66 (#318) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#266) | 0.407 (#316) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USF | DART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 41.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 30.9% |
| REB / G | 35.5 | 33.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 48.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.8% | 17.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.8% | 19.8% |
Game Analysis
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