Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | TTU -2000 JKST +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +50 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -13.5 (+36.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+16.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -11.1 (+38.9) | 140.1 (+13.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -14.6 (+35.4) | 138.2 (+15.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -13.6 (+36.4) | 140.6 (+13.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -12.1 (+37.9) | 140.4 (+13.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 7-2 |
| Away | 3-7 | 6-14 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 6.2 (#75) | -7.3 (#299) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.95 (#102) | -2.08 (#322) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.22 (#106) | -4.08 (#347) |
| RPI | 0.541 (#108) | 0.405 (#317) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | JKST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.94 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 23.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 13.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 57.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 76.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 25.0% |
Game Analysis
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