Betting Lines
| Spread | VT -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | VT -1600 GRAM +1100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | VT +26 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | VT -12.2 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.9 (-10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | VT -12.3 (+13.7) | 135.8 (-13.8) | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | VT -16.6 (+9.4) | 135.4 (-13.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | VT -11.8 (+14.2) | 136.8 (-14.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | VT -11.9 (+14.1) | 135.8 (-13.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VT | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-15 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-1 |
| Away | 2-10 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 4-1 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 67.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 63.1 |
| Massey | 9.5 (#50) | 2.4 (#126) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.97 (#12) | 0.90 (#108) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.00 (#15) | 1.40 (#98) |
| RPI | 0.639 (#14) | 0.559 (#83) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VT | GRAM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.6% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 0.92 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 46.7% |
| TOV% | 13.2% | 20.7% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 32.3% |
| FT Rate | 17.5% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 44.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 13.4% | 28.8% |
Game Analysis
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