Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MICH -1000 LIP +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MICH +8 | 158 | Won |
| Massey | MICH -13.5 (-5.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MICH -11.7 (-3.7) | 148.5 (+9.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MICH -15.1 (-7.1) | 146.7 (+11.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MICH -12.4 (-4.4) | 147.1 (+10.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MICH -11.8 (-3.8) | 146.4 (+11.6) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 11-7 |
| Home | 13-4 | 13-2 |
| Away | 3-8 | 7-11 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 74.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 72.6 |
| Massey | 6.1 (#77) | -2.3 (#218) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#70) | -0.36 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#53) | -0.72 (#231) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#79) | 0.471 (#227) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | LIP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.53 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.5% |
| TOV% | 13.0% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 22.7% | 26.4% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 15.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 72.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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