Betting Lines
| Spread | SHSU -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | TXST +125 SHSU -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TXST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SHSU +7 | 131 | Lost |
| Massey | SHSU -9.9 (+2.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 123.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SHSU -7.5 (+0.5) | 125.9 (+5.1) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SHSU -6.8 (-0.2) | 131.6 (-0.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SHSU -6.1 (-0.9) | 132.4 (-1.4) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SHSU -6.9 (-0.1) | 129.1 (+1.9) | 24% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 16, 2023 | TXST 73 – 60 SHSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TXST | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-19 | 26-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 14-4 |
| Home | 4-10 | 12-1 |
| Away | 7-7 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 61.7 |
| Massey | -1.9 (#213) | 13.1 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.37 (#219) | 2.41 (#26) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.43 (#209) | 2.82 (#39) |
| RPI | 0.455 (#250) | 0.595 (#46) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TXST | SHSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 42.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 39.3% |
| REB / G | 30.7 | 35.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 16.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 47.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.5% | 26.5% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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