Betting Lines
| Spread | PUR -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | PUR -1200 DAV +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | PUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | PUR +8 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | PUR -18.4 (-10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | PUR -14.7 (-6.7) | 143.3 (-13.3) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | PUR -13.6 (-5.6) | 144.8 (-14.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | PUR -14.4 (-6.4) | 146.0 (-16.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | PUR -14.9 (-6.9) | 144.0 (-14.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | PUR | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-6 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 7-8 |
| Away | 7-3 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 7-1 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.7 | 69.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 62.7 | 68.8 |
| Massey | 17.6 (#5) | -0.8 (#192) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.72 (#2) | 1.04 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.76 (#2) | 1.51 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.722 (#1) | 0.581 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | PUR | DAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 42.8 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.7 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.51 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 37.9% | 22.9% |
| FT Rate | 28.1% | 28.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.0% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.8% | 14.6% |
Game Analysis
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