Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Under |
| Money | ARK -600 BRAD +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +19 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -12.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.5 (+1.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -10.6 (+8.4) | 136.0 (-3.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -12.2 (+6.8) | 133.2 (-0.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -11.5 (+7.5) | 137.1 (-4.1) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -11.0 (+8.0) | 136.5 (-3.5) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-4 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 62.8 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#25) | 5.8 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#24) | 1.18 (#86) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.73 (#17) | 1.40 (#99) |
| RPI | 0.630 (#22) | 0.524 (#135) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | BRAD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.2% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 34.1% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 21.3% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 27.9% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 45.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 75.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.5% |
Game Analysis
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