Betting Lines
| Spread | EWU -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Under |
| Money | EWU -120 UCD +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EWU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EWU +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -0.4 (+11.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.2 (-4.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EWU -0.4 (+10.6) | 149.9 (-2.9) | 55% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -0.7 (+11.7) | 144.4 (+2.6) | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EWU -0.4 (+10.6) | 148.3 (-1.3) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | EWU -0.0 (+11.0) | 149.3 (-2.3) | 55% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 12, 2021 | UCD 84 – 76 EWU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EWU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-11 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 11-8 |
| Home | 11-1 | 10-4 |
| Away | 10-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.1 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#231) | 2.6 (#121) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.31 (#290) | 0.19 (#160) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#294) | 0.50 (#146) |
| RPI | 0.424 (#293) | 0.496 (#184) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EWU | UCD |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 40.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 18.4% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 76.8% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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