Betting Lines
| Spread | TULN -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
| Money | GMU +163 TULN -213 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +6 | 118 | Won |
| Massey | TULN -2.9 (+8.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -0.0 (+6.0) | 145.3 (-27.3) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TULN -0.4 (+6.4) | 146.6 (-28.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TULN -0.9 (+6.9) | 145.0 (-27.0) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -0.7 (+5.3) | 143.9 (-25.9) | 50% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 7, 2024 | GMU 76 – 64 TULN |
| Dec 22, 2023 | GMU 69 – 66 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 20-11 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 12-6 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-4 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.7 | 79.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.3 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#191) | 2.2 (#132) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#153) | 0.22 (#157) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.05 (#179) | 0.25 (#159) |
| RPI | 0.553 (#92) | 0.511 (#154) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 47.0% |
| 3PT% | 36.1% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 7.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.74 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.8% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 13.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 22.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 25.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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