Betting Lines
| Spread | GMU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GMU -1400 TULN +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +12 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | GMU -16.9 (-4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (-2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -17.6 (-5.6) | 142.4 (-2.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -17.6 (-5.6) | 142.0 (-2.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -16.9 (-4.9) | 141.8 (-1.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -14.2 (-2.2) | 143.5 (-3.5) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 22, 2023 | GMU 69 – 66 TULN |
| Dec 17, 2022 | GMU 62 – 56 TULN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GMU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 12-6 |
| Home | 18-2 | 14-3 |
| Away | 7-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#73) | -4.2 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.07 (#167) | -2.12 (#328) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#102) | -2.73 (#313) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#211) | 0.367 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GMU | TULN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.3% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.3% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 38.9 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 48.7% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 35.2% | 30.1% |
| FT Rate | 36.7% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 40.9% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 66.6% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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