Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | ETSU -110 UNCA +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +1 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | ETSU -0.6 (-1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.3 (-2.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ETSU -2.2 (-3.2) | 145.0 (+2.0) | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -0.5 (-1.5) | 142.4 (+4.6) | 53% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ETSU -0.5 (-1.5) | 144.4 (+2.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ETSU -1.2 (-2.2) | 145.3 (+1.7) | 55% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2021 | UNCA 79 – 64 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 16-2 |
| Home | 7-9 | 13-0 |
| Away | 4-9 | 10-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.5 | 69.8 |
| Massey | -6.2 (#286) | -1.7 (#207) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#346) | -0.18 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.88 (#343) | -0.54 (#219) |
| RPI | 0.346 (#357) | 0.461 (#243) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | UNCA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.7% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 30.1% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 20.9% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.2% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.0% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.