Betting Lines
| Spread | ETSU -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +15 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | ETSU -0.7 (+15.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.6 (+10.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -0.4 (+14.6) | 135.2 (+7.8) | 49% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ETSU -2.2 (+17.2) | 136.3 (+6.7) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -0.1 (+14.9) | 137.8 (+5.2) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -0.3 (+14.7) | 137.9 (+5.1) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2022 | UNCA 74 – 73 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#239) | 2.0 (#134) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.14 (#179) | 0.94 (#104) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#221) | 1.81 (#77) |
| RPI | 0.487 (#195) | 0.544 (#105) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | ETSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 41.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.5% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 21.1% |
| ORB% | 28.7% | 35.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.6% | 10.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 62.1% | 66.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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