Betting Lines
| Spread | ILL -32.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Under |
| Money | ILL -5000 AAMU +3000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILL +21 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | ILL -29.8 (-8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.5 (-38.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILL -26.2 (-5.2) | 150.4 (-35.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILL -26.3 (-5.3) | 153.4 (-38.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILL -23.3 (-2.3) | 151.8 (-36.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILL -25.8 (-4.8) | 151.5 (-36.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILL | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 9-8 |
| Away | 3-7 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.3 | 68.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 14.2 (#14) | -10.5 (#332) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.85 (#49) | -2.52 (#337) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.68 (#47) | -3.27 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.565 (#77) | 0.328 (#359) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILL | AAMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 36.4% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 34.3% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.8% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 56.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 22.6% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 65.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 24.5% |
Game Analysis
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