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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–12 on winners spread MAE 8.6 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ Butler -4.7 141.5 25% 68–46 ✓
Sacramento State @ Fresno State +5.2 137.2 68% 59–53 ✗
San José State @ Pacific +1.3 144.9 55% 58–59 ✓
Winthrop @ LSU +11.8 145.4 87% 81–89 ✓
Nebraska @ Kansas State +9.6 137.6 80% 56–71 ✓
Texas A&M @ Memphis +10.3 149.2 82% 79–83 ✓
Richmond @ Clemson -3.1 136.7 42% 57–85 ✗
Pepperdine @ Grand Canyon +5.0 135.9 69% 73–83 ✓
Portland @ Oregon +7.7 145.2 76% 56–78 ✓
Drake @ Saint Louis +5.8 142.7 72% 75–83 ✓
Wyoming @ Dayton +2.8 132.7 60% 49–66 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ UTEP +2.8 146.7 64% 55–60 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Iowa +16.2 150.8 88% 75–106 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Wichita State +2.3 132.6 58% 59–49 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Cal State Bakersfield +2.7 132.8 63% 65–59 ✗
Idaho State @ Washington +10.8 139.1 85% 55–90 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Portland State +2.4 146.0 59% 85–73 ✗
Tennessee @ Arizona +2.9 145.2 57% 70–75 ✓
NC State @ Vanderbilt -7.2 144.1 24% 70–66 ✓
Howard @ Harvard +12.0 136.1 87% 66–54 ✗
Canisius @ Penn State +17.0 146.2 88% 67–97 ✓
Stanford @ Texas +7.3 133.6 76% 62–72 ✓
Army @ Stony Brook -0.7 138.9 42% 59–66 ✗
William & Mary @ UMBC +9.3 144.1 80% 62–78 ✓
Western Michigan @ Iowa State +23.0 130.4 90% 57–73 ✓
Merrimack @ Bucknell +13.3 133.5 88% 55–61 ✓
Northeastern @ UIC +5.5 134.5 70% 73–81 ✓
Elon @ Valparaiso +5.9 141.4 70% 66–71 ✓
High Point @ UNC Wilmington +10.6 145.0 83% 82–85 ✓
Niagara @ NJIT -1.7 124.9 35% 53–62 ✗
Belmont @ Chattanooga +9.7 155.9 83% 83–79 ✗
Robert Morris @ Mount St. Mary's +5.6 132.5 72% 68–59 ✗
Rhode Island @ Georgia State +2.0 130.5 59% 66–75 ✓
UAlbany @ Loyola Chicago +12.2 140.1 86% 56–68 ✓
Long Island University @ James Madison +23.8 150.9 91% 79–115 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Saint Peter's -6.6 135.6 28% 56–63 ✗
Norfolk State @ North Carolina A&T -3.1 140.5 38% 70–66 ✓
Green Bay @ Oregon State +14.7 131.7 88% 56–65 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Eastern Michigan -2.9 159.4 35% 77–79 ✗
McNeese @ Southern Miss +23.1 136.5 91% 67–86 ✓
Tarleton State @ Air Force +5.8 134.0 71% 67–81 ✓
Oakland @ Boise State +24.4 144.1 91% 57–77 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ UTSA +7.9 145.7 78% 69–90 ✓
Southern @ UAB +13.4 154.2 88% 66–92 ✓
Texas Southern @ Hampton -3.7 141.3 33% 82–77 ✓
Cleveland State @ Loyola Marymount +6.3 137.3 75% 59–70 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Colorado +15.4 154.7 88% 77–88 ✓
California @ Santa Clara +11.5 134.3 87% 62–71 ✓
Buffalo @ West Virginia +20.6 152.2 91% 78–96 ✓
Auburn @ USC +3.2 136.5 61% 71–74 ✓
Notre Dame @ Georgia +0.2 131.8 52% 62–77 ✓
Mississippi Valley State @ TCU +20.4 131.1 91% 43–88 ✓
Central Michigan @ Missouri State +8.2 132.0 77% 58–79 ✓
Alcorn State @ Seattle U +9.4 144.9 82% 58–72 ✓
Iona @ New Mexico +5.4 146.2 69% 74–82 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.