Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Galen Center · December 18, 2022
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -1.5 Home covered
O/U 138.0 Over
Money USC -105 / AUB -115
Model Predictions
Spread Total USC win
Actual USC +3 145 Won
Massey USC -0.6 (+2.4) — —
Massey Totals — 138.4 (+6.6) —
Bradley-Terry — — 39% ✗
Weighted B-T — — 34% ✗
Efficiency Plus ML ★ USC -0.3 (+2.7) 140.8 (+4.2) 59% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML USC -3.2 (-0.2) 136.5 (+8.5) 61% ✓
Baseline ML USC -2.8 (+0.2) 136.8 (+8.2) 66% ✓
Baseline Plus ML USC -2.9 (+0.1) 140.3 (+4.7) 63% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 17, 2023 AUB 91 – 75 USC

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings USC AUB
Overall 22-11 21-13
Conference 14-6 10-8
Home 15-2 14-2
Away 5-5 4-8
Neutral 2-4 3-3
Last 5 4-1 4-1
Streak L2 L1
Avg Pts For 72.5 72.8
Avg Pts Against 67.4 67.7
Massey 4.4 (#96) 8.8 (#57)
Bradley-Terry 1.06 (#94) 2.43 (#27)
W. Bradley-Terry 1.21 (#107) 2.94 (#37)
RPI 0.531 (#124) 0.630 (#20)
Shooting & Four Factors USC AUB
FG% 45.7% 43.4%
3PT% 32.2% 28.3%
REB / G 36.5 39.4
OREB / G 9.1 13.3
AST / TO 1.08 1.02
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 51.0% 48.4%
TOV% 19.4% 18.6%
ORB% 26.7% 36.3%
FT Rate 24.2% 25.7%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.1% 42.5%
Opp TOV% 18.1% 21.4%
DRB% 67.5% 66.9%
Opp FT Rate 18.9% 18.1%

Game Analysis

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