Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Over |
| Money | USC -105 AUB -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USC +3 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | USC -0.6 (+2.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.4 (+6.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 34% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USC -0.3 (+2.7) | 140.8 (+4.2) | 59% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USC -3.2 (-0.2) | 136.5 (+8.5) | 61% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USC -2.8 (+0.2) | 136.8 (+8.2) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USC -2.9 (+0.1) | 140.3 (+4.7) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 17, 2023 | AUB 91 – 75 USC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USC | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 21-13 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 10-8 |
| Home | 15-2 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.5 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 4.4 (#96) | 8.8 (#57) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#94) | 2.43 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#107) | 2.94 (#37) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#124) | 0.630 (#20) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USC | AUB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 28.3% |
| REB / G | 36.5 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.08 | 1.02 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 26.7% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.1% | 42.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.9% | 18.1% |
Game Analysis
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