I remember one night the kid cut off his right arm in a bid to save a bit of power. "So It Goes" - Nick Lowe
Neville Arena · December 17, 2023
Betting Lines
Spread AUB -9.0 Home covered
O/U 151.5 Over
Money AUB -440 / USC +335
Model Predictions
Spread Total AUB win
Actual AUB +16 166 Won
Massey AUB -12.8 (+3.2) — —
Massey Totals — 154.1 (+11.9) —
Bradley-Terry — — 93% ✓
Weighted B-T — — 96% ✓
Efficiency Plus ML ★ AUB -12.0 (+4.0) 153.3 (+12.7) 86% ✓
Baseline Tuned ML AUB -13.4 (+2.6) 150.8 (+15.2) 86% ✓
Baseline ML AUB -12.5 (+3.5) 150.8 (+15.2) 86% ✓
Baseline Plus ML AUB -13.2 (+2.8) 152.3 (+13.7) 86% ✓

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Dec 18, 2022 USC 74 – 71 AUB

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings AUB USC
Overall 27-8 15-18
Conference 13-5 8-12
Home 15-1 9-6
Away 5-5 3-9
Neutral 7-2 3-3
Last 5 4-1 2-3
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 83.1 74.1
Avg Pts Against 68.3 74.3
Massey 14.6 (#13) 6.6 (#74)
Bradley-Terry 2.08 (#34) 0.47 (#138)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.87 (#35) 0.86 (#122)
RPI 0.604 (#33) 0.514 (#155)
Shooting & Four Factors AUB USC
FG% 46.1% 45.9%
3PT% 33.0% 34.9%
REB / G 41.2 37.3
OREB / G 13.2 11.3
AST / TO 1.84 1.07
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 52.4% 52.9%
TOV% 15.2% 19.0%
ORB% 36.1% 32.0%
FT Rate 27.4% 29.5%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 43.5% 48.1%
Opp TOV% 19.0% 18.9%
DRB% 73.5% 67.4%
Opp FT Rate 30.1% 19.2%

Game Analysis

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