Betting Lines
| Spread | AUB -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | AUB -440 USC +335 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | AUB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AUB +16 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | AUB -12.8 (+3.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | AUB -12.0 (+4.0) | 153.3 (+12.7) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AUB -13.4 (+2.6) | 150.8 (+15.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AUB -12.5 (+3.5) | 150.8 (+15.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AUB -13.2 (+2.8) | 152.3 (+13.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | USC 74 – 71 AUB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | AUB | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 15-18 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 15-1 | 9-6 |
| Away | 5-5 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 7-2 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 74.3 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#13) | 6.6 (#74) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.08 (#34) | 0.47 (#138) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.87 (#35) | 0.86 (#122) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#33) | 0.514 (#155) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | AUB | USC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 37.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.2 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.84 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.4% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 36.1% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 27.4% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.0% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 73.5% | 67.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 30.1% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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