Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -22.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -2500 SEMO +1600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +31 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -19.5 (+11.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.9 (+26.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -21.7 (+9.3) | 154.4 (+26.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -16.2 (+14.8) | 150.8 (+30.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -17.4 (+13.6) | 152.1 (+28.9) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -18.9 (+12.1) | 152.4 (+28.6) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 19, 2025 | IOWA 99 – 70 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-14 | 19-17 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 14-3 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-7 | 5-11 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 77.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 77.6 |
| Massey | 12.0 (#32) | -2.6 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.68 (#58) | -0.51 (#223) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.67 (#48) | -0.72 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#43) | 0.478 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 40.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.1% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 47.6% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 21.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.2% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.9% | 30.6% |
Game Analysis
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