Betting Lines
| Spread | IOWA -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | IOWA -50000 SEMO +3500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IOWA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | IOWA +29 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | IOWA -19.9 (+9.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.8 (+14.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | IOWA -17.8 (+11.2) | 142.4 (+26.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | IOWA -17.5 (+11.5) | 146.9 (+22.1) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | IOWA -21.7 (+7.3) | 146.4 (+22.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | IOWA -20.1 (+8.9) | 147.6 (+21.4) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | IOWA 106 – 75 SEMO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IOWA | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 3-8 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 0-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.5 | 73.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.3 | 72.3 |
| Massey | 8.9 (#57) | -4.1 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#50) | -2.87 (#356) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.90 (#45) | -4.96 (#360) |
| RPI | 0.698 (#22) | 0.488 (#195) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IOWA | SEMO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 56.8% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.2% | 27.9% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 7.3 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.81 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 63.5% | 47.1% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 22.6% |
| FT Rate | 48.0% | 21.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 62.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 24.2% | 21.7% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 34.7% |
Game Analysis
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