Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | UMBC -250 W&M +260 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMBC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMBC +16 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -7.4 (+8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (-5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -8.5 (+7.5) | 140.4 (-0.4) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -9.3 (+6.7) | 144.1 (-4.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -8.0 (+8.0) | 144.0 (-4.0) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -7.6 (+8.4) | 143.1 (-3.1) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 25, 2023 | W&M 96 – 81 UMBC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMBC | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 8-8 | 7-11 |
| Home | 13-4 | 11-5 |
| Away | 5-10 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 64.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | -2.0 (#215) | -4.4 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.16 (#193) | -0.89 (#258) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#211) | -1.56 (#280) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#245) | 0.479 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMBC | W&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 42.0% |
| 3PT% | 38.1% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.1% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.2% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 67.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.2% | 20.8% |
Game Analysis
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