Betting Lines
| Spread | W&M -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Over |
| Money | W&M -120 UMBC +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | W&M win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | W&M +15 | 177 | Won |
| Massey | W&M -8.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 174.3 (+2.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | W&M -5.9 (+9.1) | 160.0 (+17.0) | 78% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | W&M -5.8 (+9.2) | 159.0 (+18.0) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | W&M -5.7 (+9.3) | 160.7 (+16.3) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | W&M -6.3 (+8.7) | 160.8 (+16.2) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | UMBC 78 – 62 W&M |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | W&M | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-23 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-10 |
| Home | 7-7 | 6-9 |
| Away | 2-13 | 5-12 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.5 | 78.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 81.2 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#201) | -3.5 (#235) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#314) | -1.39 (#288) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.76 (#303) | -1.75 (#270) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#283) | 0.359 (#322) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | W&M | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.0% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 40.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.07 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 16.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 48.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 78.7% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 33.7% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.