Betting Lines
| Spread | TXSO -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | HAMP +250 TXSO -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HAMP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +5 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | TXSO -6.8 (+1.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.0 (+14.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 26% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TXSO -3.7 (-1.3) | 143.3 (+15.7) | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TXSO -5.2 (+0.2) | 143.0 (+16.0) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TXSO -3.7 (-1.3) | 141.3 (+17.7) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TXSO -3.9 (-1.1) | 141.4 (+17.6) | 35% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HAMP | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-6 | 7-6 |
| Away | 1-13 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.5 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.1 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -12.5 (#344) | -5.7 (#275) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.89 (#317) | -0.83 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.72 (#325) | -1.63 (#283) |
| RPI | 0.396 (#327) | 0.496 (#187) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HAMP | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 38.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 27.4% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.4 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 11.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 42.2% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 26.2% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.7% | 15.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.0% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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