Betting Lines
| Spread | LUC -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
| Money | LUC -1200 UALB +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LUC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | LUC +12 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | LUC -13.4 (-1.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-15.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LUC -11.6 (+0.4) | 140.1 (-16.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LUC -14.5 (-2.5) | 138.8 (-14.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LUC -12.2 (-0.2) | 140.1 (-16.1) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | LUC -12.4 (-0.4) | 139.8 (-15.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LUC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 3-13 |
| Home | 6-8 | 5-6 |
| Away | 3-8 | 2-16 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 66.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.5 | 76.2 |
| Massey | -2.8 (#229) | -11.2 (#336) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.22 (#197) | -2.08 (#324) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#192) | -2.88 (#328) |
| RPI | 0.496 (#186) | 0.418 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LUC | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 39.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.6% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.1% | 45.8% |
| TOV% | 26.0% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 28.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 54.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 69.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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