Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -8.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.0 Under |
| Money | BTLR +310 CONN -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BTLR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +22 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -8.1 (-13.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 9% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -6.1 (-15.9) | 142.9 (-28.9) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.9 (-14.1) | 138.3 (-24.3) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -4.7 (-17.3) | 141.5 (-27.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -6.1 (-15.9) | 140.9 (-26.9) | 31% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | CONN 80 – 70 BTLR |
| Dec 17, 2025 | CONN 79 – 60 BTLR |
| Jan 22, 2025 | CONN 80 – 78 BTLR |
| Dec 21, 2024 | CONN 78 – 74 BTLR |
| Feb 7, 2024 | CONN 71 – 62 BTLR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BTLR | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-18 | 31-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 10-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | W6 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 78.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 64.1 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#48) | 23.4 (#1) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.50 (#70) | 4.75 (#2) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.99 (#71) | 6.84 (#2) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#90) | 0.660 (#7) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BTLR | CONN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 49.5% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 37.6% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.9% | 57.5% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 36.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 27.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.8% | 41.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 23.7% |
| DRB% | 73.4% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.2% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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