Betting Lines
| Spread | MOST -12.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | MOST -800 CMU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MOST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MOST +21 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MOST -10.7 (+10.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.9 (+7.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MOST -9.0 (+12.0) | 131.2 (+5.8) | 76% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MOST -13.1 (+7.9) | 130.2 (+6.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MOST -8.2 (+12.8) | 132.0 (+5.0) | 77% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MOST -8.5 (+12.5) | 132.2 (+4.8) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MOST | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 10-4 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-8 | 3-12 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.0 | 64.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 63.7 | 74.0 |
| Massey | 1.8 (#134) | -3.9 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.42 (#214) | -2.62 (#338) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#184) | -3.26 (#333) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#222) | 0.364 (#348) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MOST | CMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.0% | 29.1% |
| REB / G | 33.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 13.7% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 21.5% |
| DRB% | 72.9% | 68.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.6% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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