Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCW -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UNCW -120 HPU +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +3 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UNCW -10.8 (-7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.8 (+22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -9.8 (-6.8) | 145.0 (+22.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -11.1 (-8.1) | 144.7 (+22.3) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -10.6 (-7.6) | 145.0 (+22.0) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -10.8 (-7.8) | 143.4 (+23.6) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2021 | UNCW 71 – 69 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-10 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 6-12 |
| Home | 11-3 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 5.1 (#90) | -0.7 (#190) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.41 (#28) | 1.02 (#102) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.94 (#38) | 0.60 (#142) |
| RPI | 0.647 (#12) | 0.537 (#110) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 40.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.9% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 27.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.0% | 14.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 29.0% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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