Betting Lines
| Spread | HPU -4.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HPU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +2 | 140 | Lost |
| Massey | HPU -7.6 (-9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (+10.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HPU -4.9 (-6.9) | 137.8 (+2.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HPU -3.8 (-5.8) | 135.4 (+4.6) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HPU -5.2 (-7.2) | 136.4 (+3.6) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | HPU -5.3 (-7.3) | 136.5 (+3.5) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | UNCW 85 – 82 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HPU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| Neutral | 1-2 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#287) | -9.3 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.69 (#302) | -1.61 (#295) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.75 (#273) | -2.11 (#295) |
| RPI | 0.380 (#339) | 0.383 (#334) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HPU | UNCW |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 35.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 26.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.84 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 41.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 30.4% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 18.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.7% | 50.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 20.6% |
| DRB% | 66.8% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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