Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | NCAT +188 NORF -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +4 | 136 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -4.2 (+0.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.6 (-9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -3.6 (-0.4) | 141.7 (-5.7) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -3.3 (-0.7) | 140.1 (-4.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.1 (-0.9) | 140.5 (-4.5) | 38% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -3.7 (-0.3) | 142.4 (-6.4) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 13, 2021 | NORF 1 – 0 NCAT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCAT | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 9-5 |
| Home | 8-5 | 10-2 |
| Away | 4-10 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 1-4 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 73.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | -6.5 (#290) | -2.3 (#223) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.45 (#220) | 0.90 (#107) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.64 (#218) | 0.91 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.474 (#224) | 0.542 (#106) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCAT | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 38.3% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 7.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.61 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 21.2% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 22.1% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 18.3% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.5% | 53.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.3% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 65.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 17.8% |
Game Analysis
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