Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCAT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +1 | 1 | Lost |
| Massey | NORF -8.3 (+7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.6 (-143.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 19% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -8.4 (+7.4) | 138.3 (-137.3) | 23% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -5.7 (+4.7) | 132.5 (-131.5) | 25% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -8.1 (+7.1) | 141.2 (-140.2) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -7.4 (+6.4) | 135.4 (-134.4) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Dec 18, 2022 | NORF 70 – 66 NCAT |
Game Analysis
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