Betting Lines
| Spread | WASH -15.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Over |
| Money | WASH -1200 IDST +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WASH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WASH +35 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | WASH -13.5 (+21.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.7 (+13.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | WASH -11.9 (+23.1) | 138.2 (+6.8) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | WASH -14.2 (+20.8) | 136.2 (+8.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | WASH -10.8 (+24.2) | 139.1 (+5.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | WASH -11.4 (+23.6) | 138.0 (+7.0) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WASH | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 11-21 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 8-10 |
| Home | 12-6 | 7-7 |
| Away | 2-9 | 4-12 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.2 | 68.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 72.1 |
| Massey | 4.3 (#99) | -4.3 (#252) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.25 (#84) | -2.34 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#75) | -2.23 (#312) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#78) | 0.363 (#351) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WASH | IDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 41.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 32.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.74 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.6% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 19.7% |
| ORB% | 26.1% | 25.2% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 19.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 49.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 26.2% |
Game Analysis
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